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Depth ForexFriday, September 22nd, 2017 at 10:56am
Daily Forex Commentary

Australian Dollar
It’s been a wild ride for the AUD over the past 24 hours gyrating between a low of 0.7916 and a high of 0.8036 when valued against its US Counterpart. Amid highly liquid trading conditions the Australian dollar managed to give up all of its gains from overnight on Wednesday in the aftermath of comments made by RBA Governor Philip Lowe. Triggering the sell-off Phillip Lowe stated that markets couldn’t rely on accommodative monetary policy forever and that the environment of record low interest rates was nearing an end. Opening a staggering 1.2% lower the Australian dollar currently swaps hands a rate of 0.7932 when valued against its US Counterpart.

New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fade from a position of strength over the past 24 hours, slumping to an eventual low of 0.7298 when valued against its US Counterpart. Whilst recent polling has re-affirmed the National Party’s lead ahead of tomorrow’s vote, currency moves were more influenced by the FOMC for much of Thursday’s session as the Kiwi struggled to keep pace with the world’s reserve currency. Whilst monetary and balance sheet tightening from the United States remains a critical driver over the medium-term, this weekend’s election will have the markets full attention. Opening lower the New Zealand dollar currently buys 73.07 US Cents.

Great British Pound
The Great British Pound is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback. In recent days the pound sterling has been confined to a tight range around the 1.3500 level, however last night we saw the GBP/USD pair move higher after a US dollar sell off, reaching a high of 1.3586 ending the day just below the 1.3600 level. Looking ahead tonight and all attentions turn to Prime Minister Theresa May's scheduled statement outlining her Brexit strategy. The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.3580. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.3530 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.3610.

Majors
During a choppy session overnight investors have continued to digest the potential implications aligned to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. In what initially triggered a sharp move back into the US Dollar, the world’s reserve currency has since struggled to maintain its lofty height, losing 0.1 percent when measured against several of its key counterparts. While treasuries were mixed, base metals tumbled as did a raft assets across the emerging market space. Acknowledging that markets are now well attuned to the idea of higher rates out of the US come December, ongoing tensions in North Korea will continue to plague risk appetite as Donald Trump ordered new sanctions on Thursday against individuals, companies and banks doing business with the country. In what promises to be a busy end to the week a key note speech from ECB President Mario Draghi along with several key macro events will likely see attentions shift towards Europe this evening. This morning the greenback opens marginally lower whilst the euro has picked up 0.5 percent worth of gains.
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Depth Forex
Depth ForexFriday, September 22nd, 2017 at 10:55am
Daily Forex Commentary

Australian Dollar
It’s been a wild ride for the AUD over the past 24 hours gyrating between a low of 0.7916 and a high of 0.8036 when valued against its US Counterpart. Amid highly liquid trading conditions the Australian dollar managed to give up all of its gains from overnight on Wednesday in the aftermath of comments made by RBA Governor Philip Lowe. Triggering the sell-off Phillip Lowe stated that markets couldn’t rely on accommodative monetary policy forever and that the environment of record low interest rates was nearing an end. Opening a staggering 1.2% lower the Australian dollar currently swaps hands a rate of 0.7932 when valued against its US Counterpart.

New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand dollar has continued to fade from a position of strength over the past 24 hours, slumping to an eventual low of 0.7298 when valued against its US Counterpart. Whilst recent polling has re-affirmed the National Party’s lead ahead of tomorrow’s vote, currency moves were more influenced by the FOMC for much of Thursday’s session as the Kiwi struggled to keep pace with the world’s reserve currency. Whilst monetary and balance sheet tightening from the United States remains a critical driver over the medium-term, this weekend’s election will have the markets full attention. Opening lower the New Zealand dollar currently buys 73.07 US Cents.

Great British Pound
The Great British Pound is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback. In recent days the pound sterling has been confined to a tight range around the 1.3500 level, however last night we saw the GBP/USD pair move higher after a US dollar sell off, reaching a high of 1.3586 ending the day just below the 1.3600 level. Looking ahead tonight and all attentions turn to Prime Minister Theresa May's scheduled statement outlining her Brexit strategy. The GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.3580. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 1.3530 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 1.3610.

Majors
During a choppy session overnight investors have continued to digest the potential implications aligned to the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday. In what initially triggered a sharp move back into the US Dollar, the world’s reserve currency has since struggled to maintain its lofty height, losing 0.1 percent when measured against several of its key counterparts. While treasuries were mixed, base metals tumbled as did a raft assets across the emerging market space. Acknowledging that markets are now well attuned to the idea of higher rates out of the US come December, ongoing tensions in North Korea will continue to plague risk appetite as Donald Trump ordered new sanctions on Thursday against individuals, companies and banks doing business with the country. In what promises to be a busy end to the week a key note speech from ECB President Mario Draghi along with several key macro events will likely see attentions shift towards Europe this evening. This morning the greenback opens marginally lower whilst the euro has picked up 0.5 percent worth of gains.
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Depth Forex
Depth ForexThursday, September 21st, 2017 at 11:17am
Daily Forex Commentary

Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar ascended against the Greenback yesterday as government yields hit their highest level since 2015 which gave support to the local unit. Pre FOMC announcement, AUD/USD hit a high of 0.8100 but soon pulled back falling almost a cent back under 0.8000 following the Fed release. As widely expected the Fed held the target rate steady at 1.00-1.25% and also announced the beginning of balance sheet normalisation next month after almost ten years of the onset of the global financial crisis. Markets are led to believe there will be three rate hikes in 2018 and perhaps one in December of this year. Aussie currently buying 0.8030 when valued against its US counterpart. Later today sees the RBA Governor Lowe speak in Perth on a speech titled ‘The Next Chapter’ to the American Chamber of Commerce.

New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand Dollar is slightly stronger against the Greenback after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday said it would embark next month on its biggest policy shift since 2015. The central bank confirmed that it would start trimming the $US4.5 trillion balance sheet it built up. On the release of the FOMC statement the Kiwi spiked to a six week high of 0.7433. Looking ahead locally today and all attentions turn to the release of Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter which is expected to rise 0.8%, taking the year on year pace to 2.5%. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7352. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7340 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7400.

Great British Pound
The Great British Pound enjoyed mixed fortunes through trade on Wednesday, rallying early before relinquishing gains in the wake of the Federal reserve’s policy announcement. Sterling found support early after retail sales for August printed well beyond expectations and heightened the likelihood of a BoE rate hike before the year is out; 66% of analysts are pricing in a November rate adjustment. Surging through 1.36 Sterling met resistance in softer wage growth and weaker company investment expectations edging lower into the FOMC’s policy announcement. The GBP then slumped back through 1.35 and touched intraday lows at 1.3456 following hawkish Federal Reserve commentary. Attentions now turn to mid-level macroeconomic indicators ahead of key Brexit commentary from Prime Minister Theresa May on Friday.

Majors
The US dollar advanced across the board through trade on Wednesday buoyed by commentary from the FOMC and Federal Reserve. Investors looked to unload USD holdings leading into the announcement forcing the greenback lower against a basket of major currency counterparts. The 19 nation Euro touched intraday highs at 1.2019 while the Yen touched lows at 111.25. The Dollar then enjoyed immediate upside and touched two month highs against the yen surging back through 112 while the Euro tumbled below 1.19. The U.S Central bank confirmed it would begin tapering its bond buying program next month reducing the scope of U.S treasuries to be re-invested. This was however largely anticipated and it was the suggestion a rate hike remains on the table before year end that drove the dollar higher. Despite persistently low inflation and mixed macroeconomic performance the committee members maintained their path to rate normalisation through 2018, however a reduction in the long term outlook from 3.00% to 2.75% capped USD upside while addendums to action and requirements for improved macro conditions ensured extended gains were curbed. Attentions now turn to ECB President Mario Draghi as he hits the wires and addresses attendees to the European Systemic Risk Board’s annual conference. Investors will be looking for any clues the ECB will soon begin tapering its own QE program.
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Depth Forex
Depth ForexWednesday, September 20th, 2017 at 11:58am
Daily Forex Commentary

Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar has climbed back through Tuesdays day of trading against the Greenback buying above the 80c handle, overnight it touched a high of 0.8020. The minutes from the latest Reserve Bank policy meeting showed that the bank is more positive about the domestic outlook and are upbeat on the labour market. Despite this the notes of caution still remain with the RBA and they are unlikely to look at raining rates anytime soon. In other news, House Price Index came in at 1.9% in the June quarter vs an expected 1.2% gain which was the likely driver behind the Aussie push towards 80c. RBA assistant governor is due to speak today at a the Australian Business Economists Lunchtime Briefing in Sydney but markets will be keenly attuned to the Fed which is due to announce plans to begin unwinding it’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet.

New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand dollar is stronger this morning when valued against the Greenback. The Kiwi reached an overnight high of 0.7326. Over the last few weeks the NZD/USD currency pair has ranged between 0.7200 and 0.7350, capped by election uncertainty, and by the downward trend in the Greenback. Looking ahead this week and traders are now preparing for the release of the quarterly GDP report on Thursday and the country's general election on Saturday. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7314. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7240 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7329.

Great British Pound
With little headline data on hand Tuesday markets offered little to excite investors as a largely uneventful session saw the GBP see saw between intraday lows at 1.3470 and highs at 1.3552. Sterling found support early following reports Boris Johnson would quit parliament if his Brexit demands were not met. Johnson is seen to be hampering Prime Minister May’s push for a softer Brexit and the reports emboldened some analysts hopes that his secession would pave the way for simpler negotiations. The reports however were rebuffed by the former London Mayor and the small rains were lost as markets square positions into what will be an all-important domestic retails sales print and FOMC rate statement.

Majors
The US dollar weakened through trade on Tuesday edging lower against a basket of major currency counterparts as investors square positions ahead of what is a critical Fed and FOMC policy meeting. It is widely anticipated the Open Market Committee will announce plans to begin tapering its Quantitative easing program as early October and the expected slowdown in bond purchase signals a wider tightening in monetary policy conditions, with an eye to a possible rate hike in December. Falling through 111.50 JPY and giving up 1.20 against the Euro investors are poised for an adjustment in short and medium term outlooks.
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Depth Forex
Depth ForexTuesday, September 19th, 2017 at 11:06am

Daily Forex Commentary

Australian Dollar
The Australian Dollar fell 40 basis points during the American session to post a fresh 2-week low. During the Asian session, the pair tested the 0.8030 resistance level before ultimately turning to the downside. Opening this morning at 0.7960, the Aussie was hit on multiple fronts with mixed Chinese money data weighing on the Australian Dollar. The bearish outlook was further exacerbated by the sharp decline in the Canadian dollar, triggering a further sell-off in both commodity currencies. With the ‘Quantitative Tightening’ announcement widely expected to be released this Thursday, policy makers and indeed traders are positioning themselves for a world with higher borrowing costs, strengthening the outlook of the Greenback and in turn weighing on its counterpart the Aussie. With a quiet day on the domestic economic calendar, investors are treading water ahead of an action-packed Thursday.

New Zealand Dollar
The New Zealand dollar is weaker this morning when valued against the Greenback. The Kiwi reached an overnight high of 0.7343 before falling 0.5% for the day to 0.7250, almost a full cent off its high. The USD strength came as the market now expects the Federal Reserve to announce on Thursday the beginning of “quantitative tightening”, with its balance sheet expected to begin shrinking from next month, as the Federal Reserve keeps its options open for a possible interest rate hike later this year in December. Westpac Consumer Sentiment was released this morning which softened to a level of 112.4 in September, down from 113.4 last quarter. The NZD/USD pair is currently trading at 0.7259. We now expect support to hold on moves approaching 0.7240 while any upward push will likely meet resistance around 0.7329.

Great British Pound
The Great British Pound broke lower through trade on Monday, ending a multi-day rally that saw Sterling touch 15 month highs. Sterling slumped back below 1.36 after BoE Governor Mark Carney suggested Monetary Policy adjustments would be limited and gradual. The commentary failed to meet the hawkish expectations of some investors and worried those backing a November rate hike. Falling across the board the GBP touched intraday lows at 1.3466 and open this morning at 1.3494 as attentions turn to Wednesday’s retails sales print and FOMC policy meeting for wider direction moving forward.

Majors
The U.S. Dollar was marginally higher in the lead up to the latest Federal Reserve rate decision on Thursday. The U.S Dollar index (DXY) is currently trading at 92.04 at the time of writing and up 0.2% for the day as markets prepare for the possibility that Fed. Reserve Governor Janet Yellen will announce the scale back of its current balance sheet which sits at $US4.4 Trillion Dollars. European CPI figures came in at expectations of 1.5% on an annual basis with the EUR/USD steady at 1.1950. The Greenback rose to a seven week high of 111.66 against the Yen yesterday as Japan observed a public holiday and investors positions themselves for the latest central bank meeting. The CME Fedwatch tool is currently pricing a 62% probability of a further interest rate rise by the Fed reserve by the end of 2017.
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